Honors Program Theses

Award/Availability

Open Access Honors Program Thesis

First Advisor

Syed Kirmani

Keywords

Earthquake damage--Mathematical models;

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to build a statistical model of the economic damage that arises from earthquakes in order to better predict losses from future earthquakes. Though earthquakes are essentially a random event and cannot be fully anticipated, analyzing historical data and creating a statistical model can provide researchers with a more accurate estimate of future losses. The data set from which this model was built incorporated earthquakes occurring worldwide from 1915-2015 in which the total damage was recorded. The final model was a multiple linear regression model explaining total damage resulting from an earthquake through four independent variables: whether or not a tsunami occurred (tsunami_dummy), whether or not the earthquake occurred in a developed nation (developed_dummy), intensity (intensity), and number of injuries (total_injuries). Statisticians, specifically those at insurance companies, can use these results to provide rough estimates of potential losses after an earthquake occurs. This model is just a starting point for statisticians, however; more accurate and representative models can be created from insurance companies’ historical losses in order to better estimate future losses.

Year of Submission

2016

Department

Department of Mathematics

University Honors Designation

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the designation University Honors

Date Original

5-2016

Object Description

1 PDF file (35 pages)

Language

EN

File Format

application/pdf

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