Dissertations and Theses @ UNI
Availability
Open Access Thesis
Abstract
Climate change poses significant socio-economic challenges globally, notably altering weather patterns and increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (Seneviratne et al. 2021). This study investigates the impact of climate change on corn yield in Iowa from 1992 to 2022, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to analyze time series data on temperature, precipitation, and corn yield at the county level. Iowa, the leading corn producer in the US (Xu, Twine, & Girvetz 2016), has experienced an 8% increase in precipitation from 1873 to 2008, with notable effects in the eastern region (“Climate Change,” n.d.). A detrending analysis was conducted to remove the time trend impact before analyzing the relationship between climatic variables and corn yield. The ARDL analysis revealed that climate change impacts corn yield differently across locations in both the short and long run. In the short run, precipitation affected 12 counties, with 2 showing positive impacts and 10 negative impacts. Minimum and maximum temperatures negatively impacted 4 and 6 counties, respectively. In the long run, precipitation positively impacted 32 counties, while minimum temperature positively affected 17 counties. Maximum temperature influenced 13 counties, with 3 experiencing positive impacts and the rest negative. These findings highlight the complex and heterogeneous effects of climate change on corn yield in Iowa, demonstrating that climate change has both positive and negative impacts, varying by location. The study underscores the importance of localized climate adaptation strategies to mitigate negative impacts and leverage potential benefits, ensuring sustainable agricultural productivity in the face of ongoing climate change.
Year of Submission
2024
Degree Name
Master of Arts
Department
Department of Geography
First Advisor
Bingqing Liang
Date Original
2024
Object Description
1 PDF file (99 pages)
Copyright
©2024 Tesleem Ajisafe
Language
en
Recommended Citation
Ajisafe, Tesleem, "A 30-Year Time Series Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Corn Yield in Iowa Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model – 1992 to 2022" (2024). Dissertations and Theses @ UNI. 1929.
https://scholarworks.uni.edu/etd/1929
