Open Access Honors Program Thesis
Syed Kirmani, Honors Thesis Advisor
This paper seeks to investigate the NFL betting market, using statistical and economic tests to challenge the Efficient Market Hypothesis’ claim that it is efficient and no strategy can be expected to make a profit. Specifically, this paper studies the spread, over-under, and money line markets to see if each is efficient on their own and as a collective. In looking to see how these lines can influence the outcomes of each other, this paper finds a number of strategies that were profitable over the timeframe of the data. This shows that the NFL betting market was not completely efficient over the time frame, and it suggests that might still be the case.
Year of Submission
Department of Mathematics
University Honors Designation
A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the designation University Honors
1 PDF file (20 pages)
©2022 Ryan Earl Oswald
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Oswald, Ryan Earl, "Testing the efficiency of the NFL betting market" (2022). Honors Program Theses. 533.