Faculty Publications

The Accuracy of Microtargeted Policy Positions

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book/Conference Title

PS - Political Science and Politics

Volume

49

Issue

4

First Page

771

Last Page

774

Abstract

Identifying voters who share policy positions with the candidates has become an important component of modern political campaigns as they rely on microtargeted estimates to guide targeting decisions. Using survey data and microtargeted estimates from the 2012 election, I conduct one of the first independent examinations of the accuracy of microtargeting. The estimates are the most accurate in Florida, a state that requests information on the race of voters when they register and has party registration. The estimates are less accurate in the other battleground states that do not collect as much information. The accuracy rates range from 36% to 82% depending on the issue and state.

Department

Department of Political Science

Original Publication Date

10-1-2016

DOI of published version

10.1017/S1049096516001645

Link to Full Text

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