Faculty Publications

Preelection Poll Accuracy and Bias in the 2016 U.S. General Elections

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book/Conference Title

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

Volume

28

Issue

2

First Page

157

Last Page

172

Abstract

This report examines accuracy and bias in national- and state-level preelection polls conducted during the 2016 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national polls in 2016 were somewhat more accurate than in 2012, but statewide polls were less accurate. Patterns across the board suggest polls underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevertheless, these biases were generally statistically insignificant, suggesting significant bias in preelection polls was scarce in 2016.

Department

Department of Political Science

Original Publication Date

4-3-2018

DOI of published version

10.1080/17457289.2018.1441850

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