Faculty Publications

Forecasting The Stock Of Retail Space Using The Koyck Distributed Lag Model

Document Type

Article

Keywords

Cycles in markets for retail space, Forecasting retail space demand, New retail development, Retail space demand, Stock of retail space

Journal/Book/Conference Title

Journal of Property Research

Volume

10

Issue

3

First Page

185

Last Page

192

Abstract

This paper adapts the distributed lag model developed by Koyck to explain the propensity of developers to create retail space. The determinants of the stock of retail space are critically important to developers, lenders, appraisers, and researchers. The model is tested using retail sales data from the counties of North Carolina, USA. Results show that it takes more than 4 years for one-half of the increased retail space resulting from expanded retail sales to be brought to the market. These extensive lags in the adjustment process indicate prolonged cycles in markets for retail space. © 1993 Land Development Studies Education Trust.

Department

Department of Finance

Original Publication Date

1-1-1993

DOI of published version

10.1080/09599919308724092

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