The NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament is one of the most popular sporting events in America. This paper dissects the tournament and attempts to accurately predict the four semi-finalists (“the final four”) using a binary choice logit model. The model does better than any current rating system at predicting these four teams. This paper also examines some common issues about predicting college basketball as a whole. Overall, this paper provides a insights for selection committees, participants in office pools, and coaches to help them achieve their own individual goals.
Major Themes in Economics
©2014 by Major Themes in Economics
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"The Final Four Formula: A Binary Choice Logit Model to Predict the SemiFinalists of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament,"
Major Themes in Economics, 16, 31-49.
Available at: https://scholarworks.uni.edu/mtie/vol16/iss1/5