"The Final Four Formula: A Binary Choice Logit Model to Predict the Sem" by Cameron Fuqua

Article Title

The Final Four Formula: A Binary Choice Logit Model to Predict the SemiFinalists of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament

Authors

Cameron Fuqua, University of Northern Iowa

Document Type

Article

Abstract

The NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament is one of the most popular sporting events in America. This paper dissects the tournament and attempts to accurately predict the four semi-finalists (“the final four”) using a binary choice logit model. The model does better than any current rating system at predicting these four teams. This paper also examines some common issues about predicting college basketball as a whole. Overall, this paper provides a insights for selection committees, participants in office pools, and coaches to help them achieve their own individual goals.

Publication Date

Spring 2014

Journal Title

Major Themes in Economics

Volume

Issue

First Page

Last Page

Copyright

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.

Language

File Format

application/pdf

Recommended Citation

Fuqua, Cameron (2014) "The Final Four Formula: A Binary Choice Logit Model to Predict the SemiFinalists of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament," Major Themes in Economics, 16, 31-49.
Available at: https://scholarworks.uni.edu/mtie/vol16/iss1/5