Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation?
Forecast accuracy, Monetary policy, Survey of Professional Forecasters
Journal of Policy Modeling
We hypothesize that if monetary policy is important in explaining movements in output and inflation then it should follow that more accurate forecasts of monetary policy, on average, will tend to produce more accurate forecasts of growth and inflation. Using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters we find that improved monetary policy forecast accuracy corresponds to lower variance of forecast errors for growth and inflation but very little reduction in the overall average size of forecast errors for growth and inflation. © 2005 Society for Policy Modelling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Department of Economics
Original Publication Date
DOI of published version
Gamber, Edward N. and Hakes, David R., "Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation?" (2005). Faculty Publications. 2966.