"An Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Transportation and GDP:" by Arijan Alagic

Article Title

An Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Transportation and GDP: A Time-Series Approach for the United States

Authors

Arijan Alagic, University of Northern IowaFollow

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Time-series analysis using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2015 is used to investigate the relationship between transportation and real GDP, controlling for the price of diesel, the amount of money invested in infrastructure, the inflation rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Transportation is proxied with the freight Transportation Services Index. Using Granger-causality, I find that changes in transportation Granger cause changes in real GDP, but not vice versa. It is a one-directional relationship where past values of transportation lead changes in real GDP.

Publication Date

Spring 2017

Journal Title

Major Themes in Economics

Volume

Issue

First Page

Last Page

Copyright

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.

Language

File Format

application/pdf

Recommended Citation

Alagic, Arijan (2017) "An Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Transportation and GDP: A Time-Series Approach for the United States," Major Themes in Economics, 19, 17-37.
Available at: https://scholarworks.uni.edu/mtie/vol19/iss1/4