Faculty Publications

Title

The level and uncertainty of inflation: Results from OECD forecasts

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book/Conference Title

Economic Inquiry

Volume

38

Issue

1

First Page

58

Last Page

72

Abstract

There is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries. Evidence of a within-country relation is mixed. Evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure; contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors. Our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast-error from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inflation forecasts. Most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation. The greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation.

Original Publication Date

1-1-2000

DOI of published version

10.1111/j.1465-7295.2000.tb00004.x

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