Post-staple bust: Modeling economic effects of mine closures and post-mine demographic shifts in an arctic economy (Yukon)
This study uses input-output (IO) and demoeconomic modeling in order to simulate direct, indirect, and induced effects of mass mine closures and subsequent population change in Yukon during the cyclical economic crisis of the late 1990s. The goal is to further the knowledge of the anatomy of resource downturn and, more importantly, its extended implications in an arctic economy. Contrary to the stylized representations, the paper argues that Yukon's economy is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in population number and structure, in addition to the resource sector itself. Specifically, the major impact of a resource downturn on regional economy is found in induced effects related to demographic shifts (aging and depopulation) in the household sector followed by changes in consumption. This article demonstrates that high-tech and high-salary industries, and services (most favorable for the future of the region) suffer the most from population loss and aging. To trace these impacts the study utilizes several variants of single-region IO models, including extended demoeconomic IO model known as the Batey-Madden or Type IV framework. In our formulation, this model emphasizes age-specific consumption and is designed to track induced changes in sectoral gross outputs resulting from income and demographic shifts. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
Original Publication Date
DOI of published version
Petrov, Andrey, "Post-staple bust: Modeling economic effects of mine closures and post-mine demographic shifts in an arctic economy (Yukon)" (2010). Faculty Publications. 2117.